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Shaye was sentenced last month to five years in prison for being the “media man” for Al-Qaeda. The 34 year-old journalist was found guilty of “participating in an armed gang, having links with Al-Qaeda and for taking photographs of Yemen security bases and foreign embassies to be targeted by the terrorist organisation.”

In the wake of uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, President Saleh made a string of concessions and welfare reforms to quell mounting opposition and calls for him to resign. Shaye’s presidential pardon, announced last Tuesday, was in keeping with recent compromises. But in a phone call with his US counterpart on 2 February, in which Obama congratulated Saleh for his recent political reforms, the US president also expressed his “concern” over the intended release of Shaye.

Taken from his house in the middle of the night in August last year and held for 34 days without access to a lawyer or his family, Shaye’s trial began last October. The journalist made his name after interviewing radical cleric Anwar Al-Awlaki. Shaye was also the first journalist to claim the US was behind bombings in the southern province of Abyan in December 2009, which killed 55 people including 21 children as well as 14 alleged Al-Qaeda members. Shaye’s claims were confirmed in a leaked diplomatic cable released on 3 December. The leaked document recorded a meeting between President Saleh and the then head of US central command, General David Petraeus, during which they discussed the aftermath of the December bombings. Saleh told Petraeus “We’ll continue saying the bombs are ours, not yours.”

Shaye’s lawyers, who did not represent him in court on the grounds that the journalist refused to recognise the legitimacy of his trial, say the charges against him were fabricated as a result of his reporting on Al-Qaeda and his accusations against the Yemeni and US governments.

Khaled Al-Anesi, a lawyer from human rights organisation HOOD, told the Yemen Times on Sunday that there were suspicions that the US wanted him jailed.

“This American interference insures that Yemen’s dealing with terrorism is run by the US,” said Al-Anesi. “If they wanted to release him they would have released him immediately straight after the pardon was announced. This is a sign that they don’t want to set him free.”

Shaye’s continued detention at the request of Barack Obama would not be the first time Yemeni prisoners have been detained at the behest of the US. Recently leaked diplomatic cables revealed that 28 Yemenis were held, ‘based on USG [US government] objections” despite Saleh agreeing to release them in a Ramadan amnesty in 2004.

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Reports have said she will remain on hunger strike until 18 of her supporters, arrested on Sunday, are also released.

I met Karman, director of Women Journalists Without Chains and member of opposition party Islah, during the trial of recently sentenced journalist Abdul-Elah Haidar Shaye. She is one of a growing number of educated young Yemenis willing to stand up to the authorities, in a country where those who do so risk lengthy imprisonment, without contact from family or any legal representation and face possible torture.

Karman led two Tunisian inspired protests in the capital Sana’a last week calling on President Saleh, who has ruled Yemen for more than 32 years, to “Leave before you are forced to leave”. Further protests have taken place in Yemen’s southern city of Aden and the highland city of Taizz.

But despite the demonstrations, which led to one protestor being shot dead in Aden on Sunday, it seems unlikely, although not impossible, that any of these activities will bring down the 64 year-old president and his dominant General People’s Congress Party (GCP). Only a joining of Yemenis with grievances against the government- and there are many of them: southern separatists, northern rebels; not to mention Yemenis in general who have been let down by a weak and corrupt government; could cause a realistic threat.

Unlike Tunisia the US and its allies have a considerable interest in the political stability of the fragile gulf state. There is fear over the consequences of any government collapse in Yemen, where the US regards the threat of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) to be a growing one.  The forced removal of Saleh would have the potential to throw the country into turmoil led by tribal power struggles, increased pressure from southern separatists and a Houthi uprising in the north.

The southern provinces of Yemen, formerly the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen until unification in 1990, not only hold the country’s dwindling oil fields, but the southern provinces of Abyan and Shabwah are also claimed as the hosts of a significant number of AQAP members.

It is this fear and the way it would play into the hands of AQAP that lies behind US and British policy, which is firmly against a Sudan-style southern succession and any sudden change in national leadership.  Whilst the US and Britain support parliamentary elections, due to take place in April, their support for democracy is in keeping with the Saleh vision of a single Yemen state. Earlier this month Washington raised concerns in a statement about proposals put forward by the government to change Yemen’s constitution. One of the changes would allow Saleh to remain in power for life.

Saleh himself continued this week with his well-known method of juggling. In response to the protests the president announced on Sunday that government and armed forces wages would be raised and there have been unconfirmed reports that income tax will be cut by 50 percent. In his speech Saleh asked for “forgiveness” and called for “dialogue” with the opposition. All while his security services where arresting and imprisoning activists.

Although Karman and all those who have marched through the streets of Sana’a, Taizz and Aden for the last two weeks have shown brave defiance, it seems improbable that any significant change will come about as a result. Saleh may yet agree to stand down in 2013, but Yemen is not a place where you can hold your breath waiting for political promises to be fulfilled. And the invisible hand of the US will no doubt be cupping its fingers around the ear of the long-standing president to have a quiet word.

Iona Craig is a freelance journalist and editor at the Yemen Times, Sana’a.

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