25 Jan 2026 | Africa, News, Uganda
Bobi Wine is alive. Uganda’s leading opposition figure is currently in hiding following last week’s elections, releasing videos to his millions of followers to confirm that he’s safe, for now. Security forces arrived at his home last week to arrest him. Later the son of President Yoweri Museveni publicly threatened to kill him, boasting online that he has already murdered dozens of Wine’s supporters. This is the reality facing Uganda’s most prominent pro-democracy voice.
At Index, we are constantly in touch with courageous people around the world. Bobi Wine is among the greatest. When we interviewed him in 2024, the singer-songwriter turned politician made one request of the international community: “do more to support all creatives in repressive regimes. By amplifying their voice and messages, you are playing your part in ensuring that eventual freedom is won.” Today, I want to do just that for Wine.
Born in 1982 in the slums of Kampala, Wine, whose real name is Robert Kyagulanyi, went on to become one of Uganda’s most successful musicians. As he told us in 2019 he recognised the power of music, and so his songs, sung to the upbeat rhythms of ragga dancehall, took an increasingly political bent. In 2017, for example, Wine composed Freedom in response to Museveni’s proposed ending of age limits for the president.
All this riled Museveni. Wine was first arrested in 2017, the year he formally entered politics. Hundreds of his concerts were cancelled. Laws were passed to restrict artistic expression, colloquially referred to as “anti-Bobi Wine laws”. In 2018 Wine was effectively banned from performing live. Radio and TV stations were routinely harassed if they played his music, and so many didn’t. That same year Wine survived an assassination attempt, while his driver was killed. He was also arrested for the first time and was so badly beaten that he was temporarily unable to speak. Undeterred, he ran for president in 2021. Hundreds of his team were abducted on the campaign trail and his supporters were shot at. Wine was detained and tortured.
Despite all of this he continued to speak out and to create. He made more songs, sometimes using coded language to evade censorship, he held concerts at his own property. He once again threw his hat into the ring for the 2026 presidential elections.
We are a mere few days away from the 40th anniversary of Museveni’s rule, and our East Africa contributing editor Danson Kahyana has reflected on the dictator’s legacy. Meanwhile, from an undisclosed location, Wine is releasing videos and doing interviews to challenge the regime’s narrative, which seeks to portray him as a criminal and to suggest that these elections were free and fair. He is also highlighting the crackdown against the opposition happening there, which extends far beyond just him. Bobi Wine is a remarkable man. His 2024 request – to amplify the voices of creatives – was simple. I’ll leave you therefore with a few lines from Freedom and a request to listen to it here:
What was the purpose of the liberation?
When we can’t have a peaceful transition?
What is the purpose of the constitution?
When the government disrespects the constitution?
Where is my freedom of expression?
When you charge me because of my expression?
Look what you doing to this nation
What are you teaching the future generation?
23 Jan 2026 | Africa, Features, Uganda
In the cover of digital darkness, Uganda’s long-serving president, General Yoweri Museveni, just “won” himself another five-year term in office that will extend his 40-year rule to 45 years come January 2031.
Afraid that the world would see the dirty ways in which the elections were conducted, he switched off the internet before polling started and ensured it remained off days after he was declared the winner. The reason behind this was simple: let the armed forces and the cadres of the ruling party deliver electoral victory to their benefactor without embarrassing footage of ballot boxes being stuffed with pre-ticked ballots and members of the opposition being brutalised and killed as they protest the actions of the criminal state.
In January 1981, Museveni claimed he had been cheated of electoral victory in the 1980 general elections, won by Apollo Milton Obote. In protest, he launched a guerilla armed struggle against Obote’s regime which brought him to power exactly five years later, on 26 January 1986. The wheel has come full circle: the man whose guerrilla war led to hundreds of thousands of deaths is doing the same thing he accused his predecessor of doing – mismanaging elections through myriad malpractices, the most regrettable of which is brutalising members of the opposition and killing some of them.
Ugandan writers have often commented on this sad state of affairs. In 1995, the year Museveni’s popularity peaked, the poet and scholar Timothy Wangusa published a poetry collection entitled Anthem for Africa in which he wrote, in part:
There is no new wisdom or new foolishness;
Every bloody deed enacts its ancient original,
And every saviour becomes the monster he killed.
1995, remember, was the year Uganda got its current constitution. Although far from a perfect document since it banned political parties, it had some good things, like presidential term limits (two five-year terms) and the presidential age limit (capping the age at which a person can stand for presidential office at 75 years of age). So, Ugandans were patient with Museveni. They knew that 10 years later, he would peacefully retire after serving two five-year terms. This did not happen. In 2005, he bribed Parliament to remove the term limits, and when he was about to turn 75, he bribed Parliament once again and had this last rail guard removed in December 2017. As I write this, he has just “won” another term to extend his rule to 45 years come January 2031.
In 2016, the Ugandan poet Peter Kagayi published his collection of poems, The Headline that Morning. In one of the poems in it, entitled In 2065, he boldly stated that nothing will have changed that much in 2065:
The president will be the president we have today,
And in a wheelchair, he will give his Nation Address
Only his son, then a Field Marshall, will read it on his behalf
And he will talk on his behalf
And he will rule on his behalf
I personally laughed off the poem as a hyperbolic worst-case scenario, because I did not think that Museveni would stay in power much longer. Remember, in January 2016 when this book came out, we still had the presidential age limit as our last guard-rail, having lost the presidential term limits in 2005. But something in Kagayi’s voice every time he read the poem indicated dead-seriousness: he meant every word he had written down. Indeed, in December 2017, two years after Kagayi’s poem came out, the age limit was removed as well. Here we are, with Museveni, at 81 years old, starting his 41st year as President of Uganda. He will always “win” the elections because they are organised by his lieutenants (remember, he handpicks members of the electoral commission). Besides, he has complete control of the army, headed by his son, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, who will crush every protest threatening his father’s hold on power.
Unfortunately for Uganda, this “win” means that the country’s deterioration will continue unabated. Even by his own admission, corruption is rampant (almost out of his control, in fact) to the extent that the Speaker of Parliament Anita Among benefited from the theft of iron sheets meant for vulnerable people in Karamoja District, and got away with it. She is at the moment Museveni’s biggest supporter, which makes the old man happy. Through her, he has complete control of the house.
The public infrastructure is in bad shape. The roads in the central region of the country, Buganda, like in many other places in the country, are potholed. Kampala looks so terrible that I believe it is the most neglected capital city in the entire continent of Africa, if not in the entire world. The potholes are designed to swallow cars, Ugandans wryly put it.
Joblessness is the order of the day with thousands of young people (especially young women) leaving the country for the Middle East to work as domestic support staff. Meanwhile, the country gets deeper into debt because with a weak Parliament it is very easy to pass supplementary budgets and resolutions to borrow more and more money. As of June 2025, Uganda’s total public debt stood at approximately $32.3 billion. It is astonishing that someone can preside over such madness for forty years and still want to continue to be in charge, rather than retire and let someone else clean up the mess.
Organising general elections is a costly affair. Given this huge “cost of democracy”, as former finance minister Ezra Suruma put it in June 2006, we expect value in the form of transparency, with the candidates who emerge as winners being the ones who actually got elected by the citizens. Unfortunately, this is not the case. The outcome of the election is long known before the polling day because of systemic flaws in the way elections are organised.
To begin with, the Electoral Commission is not independent, it is constituted by the incumbent. Secondly, the Ugandan army continues to get involved in electioneering, moreover in a blatantly partisan way, as seen by their brutalisation of the members of the opposition before, during and after campaigns. Museveni’s biggest opposition Bobi Wine, whose real name is Robert Kyagulanyi, fled into hiding during the election period following threats from Museveni’s son Kainerugaba, with Wine saying he had escaped a raid on his home.
Finally, safeguards to ensure electoral integrity are done away with. For instance, biometric machines were procured at a hefty cost to ensure that a person votes just once. On polling day, these machines did not work, likely because of the internet shutdown that the government had ordered. Every presidential and parliamentary candidate is supposed to have agents at polling stations to ensure that the counting of ballots is done in a transparent way. There are claims that opposition politicians were dispersed by security forces.
It is no wonder that one of Museveni’s senior presidential advisors, Yiga Wamala, blatantly told the nation, a few days to polling day, not to think that elections could drive his boss out of power. “Vote and go home,” he said, describing how Museveni would be announced as the winner of the election, and after Museveni retires or dies, his son will succeed him. In other words, elections are a waste of time and money, as the winners are not decided by the people of Uganda, but by the might of the politicians who control the armed forces.
It is against this background that 10 years ago, I published a poem entitled I Miss Idi Amin in which I argued that because General Idi Amin (who ruled Uganda from 1971-1979) did not pretend to be a democrat, he saved the country huge sums of money. Let me conclude this reflection with three stanzas from the poem:
I miss Amin –
Rather than hold sham elections
Like other Ugandan presidents have done
He ruled by decree and saved the taxpayers money and time.
I miss Amin –
He made his intentions clear
And declared himself life president
Rather than hide behind sneaky constitutional amendments.
I miss Amin –
He had no place for one hundred ministers
And four hundred presidential advisors –
He saved the country billions of shillings in political patronage.
Read Danson Kahyana’s interview with Bobi Wine: Bobi Wine still standing up to oppression in Uganda, politically and musically
9 Sep 2025 | Africa, News, Newsletters, Tanzania
Social media activist Edgar Mwakabela, better known as Sativa, shouldn’t be alive today. In an interview with the BBC this week he spoke about how he was abducted last June in Tanzania’s main city Dar es Salaam and later taken to a remote area. His captors interrogated him about his activism and his criticism of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party. He was tortured and shot in the head. The bullet went through his skull and shattered his jaw. He was meant to die. Somehow he didn’t. That he still has a voice is the only positive part of this grim story.
It’s made all the grimmer by the fact that it stands out because of Sativa’s survival. It’s unlike the story of Ali Mohamed Kibao, whose body was found beaten and doused with acid last September. It’s unlike Modestus Timbisimilwa, who was shot dead by police last November as he tried to stop interference at polling stations. It’s unlike George Juma Mohamed and Steven Chalamila, both killed in their own homes the night before. All were part of the opposition.
Tanzania goes to the polls next month but as these examples show it’s insulting to suggest the elections will be remotely free or fair.
The CCM have been in power for decades, ever since colonial rule ended in Tanzania in the 1960s. They are currently led by Samia Suluhu Hassan, who proceeded the increasingly autocratic John Magufuli, a regular on the pages of Index (see here, here and here). When Hassan first took office as Tanzania’s president, there was cautious optimism that the rights landscape would improve – and it did for a bit. Gains were made in the realms of media freedom and protest rights. A ban on opposition gatherings was lifted. The tide has however turned.
The main opposition party, Chadema, has been barred from participating in the election. Chadema’s leader, Tundu Lissu, is currently in jail charged with treason, after he called for electoral reforms.
In addition to those who’ve been killed or jailed are the many disappeared. Posters of the missing have become a pre-election fixture. One high-profile case is that of artist Shadrack Chaula, who last July was imprisoned for an online video in which he allegedly “insulted” Hassan. He paid a hefty fine in exchange for his freedom only to disappear a month later. Another is Deusdedith Soka, a 30-year-old Chadema youth leader who disappeared last August after calling for a demonstration precisely against disappearances.
Hassan has condemned many of these brutal acts, denied any involvement and called for investigations. But they’re still happening under her watch in a country she leads. Last year Lissu said that Hassan “has done with a smile what Magufuli did with a snarl.” Compared to the execrable Magufuli, who was nicknamed the “bulldozer”, we’ve paid little attention to her. It’s clear that needs to change.
12 Feb 2025 | Belarus, Europe and Central Asia, News
When a dictator wants to publicly overcompensate for an election loss five years earlier, his ego must be very bruised. This is what happened in Belarus during the presidential “election” on 26 January 2025.
Belarusians still live in the reality of the fraudulent 2020 election when Russia-backed dictator Aliaksandr Lukashenka jailed or exiled his opponents, crushed mass pro-democracy protests, and launched a crackdown that has now been continuing for nearly five years.
Ahead of the 2020 election, hope was high as new politicians emerged, and informal polls on Telegram showed that 97% of people in Belarus wanted political change in the country, leaving Lukashenka with just 3% support. A meme was born: “Sasha 3%”. But his Central Election Committee “counted” 80% of votes for him, sparking mass protests and ongoing resistance.
Lukashenka waited nearly five years to respond to the meme that highlighted his woeful support. During his “re-election” on 26 January, he claimed that he received the support of 86.82% of voters. Conveniently, this was just under 1% lower than Putin had during his last elections in 2024 – so the dictatorial race remains friendly and, let’s say, respectful.
But jokes aside, no democratic country or institution could call it anything other than a sham election. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the president-elect of Belarus, told Index: “For the first time, the democratic world made statements of non-recognition of Belarus’s ‘election’ even before voting day. It’s clear that Lukashenka’s attempts to legitimise himself have failed. We can call it a self-reappointment, a farce, a circus – but not an election.”
The Belarusian dictator completely ignored all fundamental principles of free and fair elections. Moreover, he continues mass repression in the country every day. “The crackdown on the people only intensified ahead of the ‘election’,” said Tsikhanouskaya. “Lukashenka continues to behave as if hundreds of thousands are marching outside his palace, just like in 2020. But resistance against him is impossible in Belarus right now – you are immediately jailed and handed harsh sentences.”
This year’s election was an easy and relaxed “win” for Lukashenka, unlike in 2020 when he had to face public unrest and didn’t know how to respond – for example, to crowds of factory workers chanting “Lukashenka into prison van” or “Go away”.
One trick Lukashenka’s Central Election Commission has been using for decades is forcing people into early voting – changing the real ballots is easier this way rather than doing it on Sunday, the main election day. The Central Election Commision claimed that early voter turnout was a record 41% this time. Students and workers of the state sector are often persistently called and even brought in groups to do early voting. Independent observers often see this process as a tool to manipulate votes. Moreover, the human rights centre Viasna reported that at one polling station in the Ivatsevichy region in Southern Belarus, the commission members followed voters to booths and sometimes showed people where to mark the ballot for Lukashenka.
But another rigged election and the seventh term of the dictator doesn’t mean the fight is over. Belarusian activists, independent journalists, and exiled democratic forces refuse to let Lukashenka’s regime ignore the will of the people and silence their voices.
“For over four years, the people of Belarus have been showing the dictator that they want him gone,” said Tsikhanouskaya. “They see no future for the country with Lukashenka clinging to power. But their voices are silenced – it’s a situation where nine million people are held hostage. So our goal remains unchanged since August 2020: we keep working tirelessly for freedom and democracy in Belarus, the release of all political prisoners, and an end to violence and repression.”
While it is crucial for all Belarusians to have the support of the international community, the country’s free media are in special need of help and solidarity. Firstly, there are still many media workers inside the country who suffer severe repression from the regime.
There are many known names like Katsiaryna Bakhvalava (Andreyeva), a Belsat journalist who was sentenced to eight years and three months in prison; Ihar Losik, blogger and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) journalist, sentenced to 15 years; or Andrei Aliaksandraŭ, a BelaPAN journalist and former Index employee, sentenced to 14 years.
The independent organisation Belarusian Association of Journalists (BAJ) counts 41 media workers as political prisoners currently. But the real numbers are higher, as many cases of repression are intentionally not made public.
BAJ deputy chairman Barys Haretski explains the pressure people face from the regime: “Repressions against journalists in Belarus remain at a high level. Many of those behind bars prefer not to be spoken about publicly to avoid even more severe persecution. During the elections, pressure on the media only intensified – entire editorial offices were shut down, such as Intex-Press in Baranavichy, where the entire team ended up in pre-trial detention on criminal charges.
“The situation for journalists in the country remains critical. The authorities preemptively wiped out independent media even before the elections, and many media professionals who stayed in Belarus had to endure constant searches and detentions.”
Many independent media managed to leave the country and relaunch their work in exile in Lithuania and Poland, as the crackdown against civil society in Belarus aimed to decimate the whole field of those not controlled by the state. Having colleagues held hostage in Belarusian prisons, whilst trying to establish work in a new country and constantly fighting for the right of Belarusians to receive true and accurate news creates a very challenging environment.
Following the election, the situation became even more challenging for Belarusian free media. But this crisis came from an unexpected direction – the decision of newly-elected USA President Donald Trump to freeze foreign aid last month.
The dismantling of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), and the 90-day freeze on funding for overseas aid projects, meant that many Belarusian exiled journalists, media workers, and NGOs face an uncertain future. This directly affects all Belarusians, as well as journalists.
“The organisations that had USA support were often well-established, producing high-quality media content with significant reach inside Belarus,” said the Belarusian Association of Journalists’s Haretski. “ Many of them are now on the verge of shutting down but in the Belarusian media sector, we are used to crisis situations. And BAJ is engaged in a very large number of products, projects, and support for the media sector as a whole. This includes everything from psychological support to fact-checking and education”.
Often, Belarusian media in exile are the only ones able to provide balance against the state propaganda machine of Lukashenka. People inside the country continue secretly reading these media outlets using virtual private network (VPN) services, despite these being blocked and labelled extremist in Belarus, with criminal penalties for following their websites and social media.
“Belarusian independent media maintain a huge audience within the country – around three million people, or even more,” added Haretski. “Despite forced migration, blockages, and the criminalisation of media consumption, their influence remains significant.
“Losing this influence would mean handing the audience over to state-run Belarusian and Russian propaganda, which are eager to fill this vacuum. This would also affect attitudes towards the war in Ukraine – without independent information, propaganda would quickly brainwash the population, making Belarus a more loyal ally of Putin. So far, this hasn’t happened, largely thanks to the work of independent media.”
